AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga Portugal 2 May 15, 2025

Penafiel FC

Home
VS
17:45

Chaves

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Penafiel FC Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Chaves Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 32%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 2.00 - 0.94
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 0.9
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Penafiel FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Chaves Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
39%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 2-0 (11%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (7%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Under 2.5 Goals 45%
Penafiel FC Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
May 11 Penafiel … vs Benfica 1-1
May 05 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 0-1
Apr 27 Penafiel … vs Leixões SC 3-1
Apr 19 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 1-2
Apr 14 Penafiel … vs Mafra 4-2
Feb 21 Penafiel … vs Portimone… 3-0
Feb 16 Penafiel … vs FC Porto 3-2
Feb 08 Penafiel … vs Pacos Fer… 1-2
Jan 20 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 2-2
Jan 04 Penafiel … vs Chaves 0-1
Chaves Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
May 10 Chaves vs União de … 0-2
May 04 Chaves vs Tondela 2-1
Apr 29 Chaves vs Alverca 0-2
Apr 19 Chaves vs FC Porto 1-2
Apr 12 Chaves vs Portimone… 2-0
Mar 30 Chaves vs Pacos Fer… 2-0
Mar 15 Chaves vs Moreirense 4-0
Feb 28 Chaves vs Benfica 1-2
Feb 15 Chaves vs Felgueira… 2-0
Feb 02 Chaves vs MarĂ­timo 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Penafiel FC struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • Chaves struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 04, 2025 Chaves 0 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Jul 18, 2023 Penafiel FC 1 - 2 Chaves Friendlies Clu…
Mar 06, 2022 Penafiel FC 2 - 1 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Oct 10, 2021 Chaves 3 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Mar 29, 2021 Chaves 2 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Nov 09, 2020 Penafiel FC 1 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Penafiel FC Power 0
Chaves Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

18

Penafiel FC Position

-9

Position Gap

9

Chaves Position
Home Win Rate: 30%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.