Primeira Liga · May 18, 2024 14:30
Arouca
PWR 35
Guimaraes
PWR 35
Arouca
PWR 35
1 - 3
FT
Guimaraes
PWR 35
45% H
25% D
30% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (53% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
53%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (26%)
2-0 (21%)
0-0 (16%)
3-0 (11%)
1-1 (5%)
2-1 (4%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 1-3
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 0 rules · 45%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk49%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar - high draw probabilityClose positions = higher draw riskWeak home team = higher draw riskBoth mid-table = higher draw riskSAME_STATS: WR diff only 3% = high draw riskElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: WR diff 3%, pos gap 3
Power & Form
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Attack0
Defense100
Goals/G0.0
Conc/G0.0
Arouca Form
LLDDD
DOWN
Guimaraes Form
LLLLW
DOWN
Score & Markets
Over 2.527%
BTTS15%
Under 2.573%
Arouca Goals
0
20%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4
6%
Guimaraes Goals
0
82%
1
16%
2
2%
3
0%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Aroucavs
0.20
GuimaraesDecision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum86%
Standings44%
Market50%
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#12
Arouca-3
Gap#9
Guimaraes
WR 27% 23 pts
WR 30% 28 pts
Arouca
6.0%
| May 12 | Arouca v Benfica | 5-0 |
| May 12 | Arouca v Benfica | 5-0 |
| May 05 | Arouca v Estrela… | 0-0 |
| May 05 | Arouca v Estrela… | 0-0 |
| Apr 26 | Arouca v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Apr 26 | Arouca v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Apr 19 | Arouca v Rio Ave… | 1-1 |
| Apr 19 | Arouca v Rio Ave… | 1-1 |
| Apr 14 | Arouca v Boavista | 2-1 |
| Apr 06 | Arouca v SC Braga | 0-3 |
Guimaraes
4.0%
| May 11 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 2-3 |
| May 11 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 2-3 |
| May 04 | Guimara… v Rio Ave… | 2-1 |
| May 04 | Guimara… v Rio Ave… | 2-1 |
| Apr 27 | Guimara… v Boavista | 1-0 |
| Apr 27 | Guimara… v Boavista | 1-0 |
| Apr 21 | Guimara… v Sp Lisb… | 3-0 |
| Apr 21 | Guimara… v Sportin… | 3-0 |
| Apr 17 | Guimara… v FC Porto | 3-1 |
| Apr 13 | Guimara… v Farense | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (7)
| Jan 15, 2024 | Guimaraes | 2-1 | Arouca |
| Jan 15, 2024 | Guimaraes | 2-1 | Arouca |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Guimaraes | 0-2 | Arouca |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Arouca | 2-2 | Guimaraes |
| Feb 19, 2022 | Guimaraes | 1-3 | Arouca |
| Sep 18, 2021 | Arouca | 2-2 | Guimaraes |
| Nov 21, 2020 | Arouca | 0-0 | Guimaraes |
Key Factors
Guimaraes struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.