Copa del Rey · Jan 18, 2024 20:30
Atlético Madrid
PWR 45
Real Madrid
PWR 49
Atlético Madrid
PWR 45
4 - 2
FT
Real Madrid
PWR 49
27% H
29% D
44% A
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Draw expected (60% confidence)
Prediction
1-1
Score
60%
Confidence
STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Match Analyzer STANDARD
Most Likely Scores:
1-0 (16%)
2-0 (14%)
1-1 (10%)
0-0 (9%)
2-1 (9%)
3-0 (8%)
1X2SKIP
Over/UnderUNDER_25
BTTSBTTS_NO
LOST - Actual: 4-2
Stability Protocol
SKIP · 3 rules · 72%DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk17%
Accuracy42%
HOME_WIN_RATEHOME_SCORINGAWAY_LEAKING
AH: AH -0.5 - Low draw risk
AH_05
Standings data available (Tier 2)Strong home team = lower draw riskBelow minimum tier (need 4+ rules, got 3)
Power & Form
Attack52
Defense77
Goals/G1.7
Conc/G0.8
Attack64
Defense75
Goals/G2.1
Conc/G0.8
Atlético Madrid Form
LLLWL
DOWN
Real Madrid Form
WWWLW
UP
Score & Markets
Over 2.541%
BTTS39%
Under 2.559%
Atlético Ma… Goals
0
18%
1
31%
2
27%
3
15%
4
7%
Real Madrid Goals
0
53%
1
34%
2
11%
3
2%
4
0%
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Atlético Madridvs
0.64
Real MadridDecision Breakdown
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player40%
Momentum81%
Standings50%
Market50%
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
League Standings
#4
Atlético Ma…+7
Gap#11
Real Madrid
WR 64% 28 pts
WR 50% 16 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 15 | 28 |
| Real Madrid | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 16 |
Atlético Madrid
4.0%
| Jan 10 | Atlétic… v Real Ma… | 5-3 |
| Jan 03 | Atlétic… v Girona | 4-3 |
| Dec 16 | Atlétic… v Athleti… | 2-0 |
| Dec 13 | Atlétic… v Lazio | 2-0 |
| Dec 03 | Atlétic… v FC Barc… | 1-0 |
| Nov 25 | Atlétic… v Mallorca | 1-0 |
| Oct 29 | Atlétic… v Alavés | 2-1 |
| Oct 08 | Atlétic… v Real So… | 2-1 |
| Sep 24 | Atlétic… v Real Ma… | 3-1 |
| Sep 16 | Atlétic… v Valencia | 3-0 |
Real Madrid
16.0%
| Jan 14 | Real Ma… v FC Barc… | 4-1 |
| Jan 10 | Real Ma… v Atlétic… | 5-3 |
| Jan 03 | Real Ma… v Mallorca | 1-0 |
| Jan 03 | Real Ma… v Girona | 4-3 |
| Dec 23 | Real Ma… v Sevilla… | 1-0 |
| Dec 21 | Real Ma… v Alavés | 0-1 |
| Dec 21 | Real Ma… v Alavés | 0-1 |
| Dec 19 | Real Ma… v Getafe | 3-3 |
| Dec 17 | Real Ma… v Villarr… | 4-1 |
| Dec 17 | Real Ma… v Villarr… | 4-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Jan 10, 2024 | Real Madrid | 5-3 | Atlético Madr… |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Atlético Madr… | 3-1 | Real Madrid |
Key Factors
Real Madrid in strong form (4W in last 5)
Atlético Madrid struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data. Results may vary.