AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga 3 Oct 26, 2025

União Santarém

Home
VS
15:00

Mafra

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
União Santarém Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Mafra Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.15 - 0.33
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.3
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
União Santarém Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
32%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Mafra Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
72%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
4%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (26%) 0-0 (23%) 2-0 (15%) 1-1 (9%) 0-1 (8%) 3-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Under 2.5 Goals 82%
União Santarém Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 04 União San… vs Atlético … 1-2
Sep 28 União San… vs 1º Dezemb… 0-0
Sep 24 União San… vs Caldas 0-1
Sep 21 União San… vs Amarante 2-0
Sep 14 União San… vs Amora 3-0
Aug 23 União San… vs SC Covilha 1-1
Aug 17 União San… vs Academica 1-0
Aug 09 União San… vs Lusitano … 1-0
May 04 União San… vs Academica 0-4
Apr 12 União San… vs Caldas 0-1
Mafra Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 11 Mafra vs Amora 2-0
Oct 05 Mafra vs 1º Dezemb… 3-1
Sep 28 Mafra vs Caldas 1-1
Sep 21 Mafra vs Celoricen… 1-0
Sep 14 Mafra vs SC Covilha 0-0
Aug 24 Mafra vs Academica 1-0
Aug 17 Mafra vs Lusitano … 4-1
Aug 09 Mafra vs CF Os Bel… 1-1
May 15 Mafra vs Moreirense 2-0
May 09 Mafra vs Moreirense 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • União Santarém struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 02, 2022 União Santarém 0 - 1 Mafra Taça de Portug…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
União Santarém Power 0
Mafra Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

União Santarém Position

-2

Position Gap

2

Mafra Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.