AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie B Sep 27, 2025

Monza

Home
VS
15:15

Padova

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Monza Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Padova Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 85%
Standings 85%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 45%
xG: 1.92 - 0.54
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.5 Position gap: 10 places
High draw risk (45%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Monza Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Padova Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
58%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (16%) 2-0 (16%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (9%) 0-0 (9%) 2-1 (9%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Under 2.5 Goals 57%
Monza Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 20 Monza vs Sampdoria 1-0
Sep 12 Monza vs Avellino 2-1
Aug 31 Monza vs Bari 1-1
Aug 23 Monza vs Mantova 1-0
Aug 17 Monza vs Frosinone 0-1
Aug 12 Monza vs Inter 2-2
May 24 Monza vs AC Milan 2-0
May 18 Monza vs Empoli 1-3
May 13 Monza vs Cosenza 0-1
May 11 Monza vs Udinese 1-2
Padova Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 21 Padova vs Virtus En… 2-1
Sep 13 Padova vs Frosinone 0-1
Aug 31 Padova vs Carrarese 0-0
Aug 23 Padova vs Empoli 3-1
Aug 10 Padova vs Vicenza V… 0-2
Aug 04 Padova vs Cosenza 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Padova struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

PRO: Monza to win (74% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Monza Power 43
Padova Power 32
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Monza Position

+10

Position Gap

13

Padova Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 36%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.