AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Bundesliga Sep 27, 2025

FC St. Pauli

Home
VS
13:30

Bayer Leverkusen

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
FC St. Pauli Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Bayer Leverkusen Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 30%
Market 50%
Combined: 41% Draw Risk: 50%
xG: 2.09 - 1.48
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.1 vs 1.5
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC St. Pauli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
12%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Bayer Leverkusen Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
23%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 1-1 (9%) 2-2 (7%) 1-2 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 2-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Under 2.5 Goals 33%
FC St. Pauli Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 19 FC St. Pa… vs VfB Stutt… 2-0
Sep 14 FC St. Pa… vs FC Augsbu… 2-1
Aug 29 FC St. Pa… vs Hamburger… 0-2
Aug 23 FC St. Pa… vs Borussia … 3-3
May 17 FC St. Pa… vs VfL Bochum 0-2
May 11 FC St. Pa… vs Eintracht… 2-2
May 03 FC St. Pa… vs VfB Stutt… 0-1
Apr 27 FC St. Pa… vs Werder Br… 0-0
Apr 20 FC St. Pa… vs Bayer Lev… 1-1
Apr 12 FC St. Pa… vs Holstein … 1-2
Bayer Leverkusen Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 21 Bayer Lev… vs Borussia … 1-1
Sep 18 Bayer Lev… vs FC Copenh… 2-2
Sep 12 Bayer Lev… vs Eintracht… 3-1
Aug 30 Bayer Lev… vs Werder Br… 3-3
Aug 23 Bayer Lev… vs 1899 Hoff… 1-2
Aug 08 Bayer Lev… vs Chelsea 2-0
May 17 Bayer Lev… vs FSV Mainz… 2-2
May 17 Bayer Lev… vs Mainz 2-2
May 11 Bayer Lev… vs Borussia … 2-4
May 04 Bayer Lev… vs SC Freibu… 2-2
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 20, 2025 FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga
Dec 07, 2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli Bundesliga
Dec 07, 2024 Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli Pro League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FC St. Pauli Power 35
Bayer Leverkusen Power 42
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

17

FC St. Pauli Position

-11

Position Gap

6

Bayer Leverkusen Position
Home Win Rate: 22%
Away Win Rate: 56%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.