AI Match Insights

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Serie A Oct 05, 2025

São Paulo FC

Home
VS
19:00

Palmeiras

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
São Paulo FC Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Palmeiras Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 43% Draw Risk: 52%
xG: 1.05 - 0.48
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.5
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
São Paulo FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Palmeiras Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
62%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (23%) 0-0 (22%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (10%) 2-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Under 2.5 Goals 80%
São Paulo FC Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 02 São Paulo… vs Fortaleza 0-2
Sep 29 São Paulo… vs Ceará 0-1
Sep 27 São Paulo… vs São Gabri… 3-1
Sep 25 São Paulo… vs LDU Quito 0-1
Sep 23 São Paulo… vs Bahia 1-0
Sep 21 São Paulo… vs Santos 1-0
Sep 17 São Paulo… vs Flamengo … 1-0
Sep 14 São Paulo… vs Botafogo 1-0
Sep 02 São Paulo… vs Cuiaba U17 1-0
Aug 31 São Paulo… vs Cruzeiro 1-0
Palmeiras Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 01 Palmeiras vs Vasco DA … 3-0
Sep 30 Palmeiras vs Vasco U17 3-1
Sep 28 Palmeiras vs Bahia 1-0
Sep 25 Palmeiras vs River Pla… 3-1
Sep 23 Palmeiras vs Cuiaba U17 4-0
Sep 21 Palmeiras vs Fortaleza 4-1
Sep 16 Palmeiras vs Internaci… 0-2
Sep 13 Palmeiras vs Internaci… 4-1
Sep 02 Palmeiras vs Corinthia… 2-3
Aug 31 Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • São Paulo FC in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Palmeiras in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jun 10, 2025 Palmeiras 2 - 1 São Paulo FC Brasileiro U17
May 11, 2025 Palmeiras 1 - 0 São Paulo FC Serie A
Mar 11, 2025 Palmeiras 1 - 0 São Paulo FC Paulista - A1
Feb 16, 2025 Palmeiras 0 - 0 São Paulo FC Paulista - A1
Aug 18, 2024 Palmeiras 2 - 1 São Paulo FC Serie A
Jun 17, 2024 São Paulo FC 1 - 5 Palmeiras Brasileiro Wom…
Apr 29, 2024 São Paulo FC 0 - 0 Palmeiras Serie A
Mar 03, 2024 São Paulo FC 1 - 1 Palmeiras Paulista - A1
Feb 04, 2024 Palmeiras 0 - 0 São Paulo FC Supercopa do B…
Oct 25, 2023 Palmeiras 5 - 0 São Paulo FC Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
São Paulo FC Power 0
Palmeiras Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

São Paulo FC Position

-3

Position Gap

2

Palmeiras Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.